Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 653
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 1, 2003, 12:28 AM EDT for 22 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 1, 2003, 12:28 AM EDT (04:28 UTC)
- Expired
- May 1, 2003, 2:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 22 counties
Barry County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI
The radar
The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1047 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 52 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 342 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 394 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
545 ACUS11 KWNS 010429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010428 MIZ000-010600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010428Z - 010600Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SRN AND W-CNTRL MI OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE NOSE OF 40-45KT LLJ. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MI FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE BUOYANT...CLOUD BEARING LAYER IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL TSTM ORGANIZATION/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 05/01/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42658627 43148634 43548616 43618554 43568469 43468386 43298314 42928274 42428287 42068323 41908387 42008477 42218575 42308586
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 8:31 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berrien, Branch, Cass, Saint Joseph | 119 min |
| Apr 30, 9:48 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lenawee, Monroe | 87 min |
| Apr 30, 11:31 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berrien, Branch, Cass, Saint Joseph | 89 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.