Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 641

April 30, 200310 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 30, 2003, 2:13 PM CDT for 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 30, 2003, 2:13 PM CDT (19:13 UTC)
Expired: Apr 30, 2003, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 92 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Brown County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Concho County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Kimble County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 176 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1653 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -274 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 798 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 96 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 181 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

195 
ACUS11 KWNS 301914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301913 
TXZ000-302045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301913Z - 302045Z

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SWRN TX DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP NNEWD ALONG THE DRY LINE.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY/18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRY LINE EXTENDS
FROM SWRN OK SWD TO NEAR DYS TO SJT AND THEN SWWD TO TERRELL COUNTY/
RIO GRANDE RIVER.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING OVER SWRN TX
ALONG THE DRY LINE/HIGHER TERRAIN OVER ERN BREWSTER COUNTY NWD INTO
SRN PECOS COUNTY...WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW THE STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.	AIR MASS E OF THE DRY LINE HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG.  ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE EWD INTO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
GIVEN 20-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORING MULTI-CELL STORMS...WITH
A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

..PETERS.. 04/30/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30150179 31280038 32329983 31919881 29670013

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 29, 8:19 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 6 more	86 min
Apr 29, 9:05 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Borden, Callahan, Childress, Coke and 44 more	85 min
Apr 29, 9:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Archer, Brown, Clay, Comanche, Eastland, Erath and 13 more	3 hr
Apr 29, 11:16 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bosque, Collin, Cooke, Coryell, Dallas, Denton and 7 more	119 min
Apr 30, 6:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.