Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 6

January 1, 200328 counties in North Carolina; 5 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2003, 10:15 AM EST for 28 counties in North Carolina; 5 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 1, 2003, 10:15 AM EST (15:15 UTC)
Expired: Jan 1, 2003, 12:15 PM EST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 33 counties

Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Camden County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Craven County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Pender County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 70 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 346 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -13 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 737 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 150 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 170 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 1.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

349 
ACUS11 KWNS 011515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011515 
NCZ000-VAZ000-011715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0915 AM CST WED JAN 01 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC/FAR SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 011515Z - 011715Z

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD OVER FAR ERN NC THIS MORNING
AND INTO FAR SERN VA AROUND 17Z.  HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.  HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED...THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.


SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN NC/
SERN VA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OVER NC INTO VA PREVENTING SURFACE HEATING AND A SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS OVER ERN NC AT MHX SUGGEST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.	HOWEVER...IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S...THEN STORMS WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NNEWD INTO
WRN/CENTRAL NC ATTM.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
IS OFFSHORE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/ SUPERCELLS.  THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY INLAND OVER FAR ERN NC DURING THE
LAST HOUR...WHERE RADARS SHOW A FEW SR-VELOCITY COUPLETS.  LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE EXIT
REGION OF A 76 KT SWLY 500 MB JET OVER THE SERN STATES PER 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SERN VA.


STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM SRH OVER FAR
ERN NC/FAR SERN VA AND THE OUTER BANKS WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT MAINLY OFFSHORE.

..PETERS.. 01/01/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

34217783 34877848 35967785 36847694 36997551 35557529
34577643

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.