Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 56

February 13, 20035 counties in Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 13, 2003, 1:09 PM MST for 5 counties in Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 13, 2003, 1:09 PM MST (20:09 UTC)
Expired
Feb 13, 2003, 4:15 PM MST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Gila County, AZ, Graham County, AZ, Maricopa County, AZ, Pima County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 10 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 2003-02-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 2003-02-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 73 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1697 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
214 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

142 
ACUS11 KWNS 132010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132009 
AZZ000-132315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CST THU FEB 13 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132009Z - 132315Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.  



THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER SRN AZ WITH UPPER VORT.  LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE IS HELPING TO CREATE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL.  LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN
THE 50S HAVE CREATED POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES
OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  DEGREE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUED
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1 OR LESS.	

..JEWELL.. 02/13/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

34101021 33850935 31481042 31781249 32101341 32651342
33391307 34671232 34391081

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.