Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 55

February 11, 200316 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 11, 2003, 12:13 PM EST for 16 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 11, 2003, 12:13 PM EST (17:13 UTC)
Expired: Feb 11, 2003, 5:15 PM EST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Alger County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Baraga County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Delta County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Keweenaw County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Luce County, MI, Mackinac County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1653 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 156 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 161 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

863 
ACUS11 KWNS 111714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111713 
MIZ000-112215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI AND NWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 

VALID 111713Z - 112215Z

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI BY 11/21Z. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
1-2/HR SNOW RATES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AS SURFACE WINDS TURN WNWLY AT
20-30 MPH.



AT 11/16Z...ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO NERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SD. SFC FRONT AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR/WV IMAGERY ACROSS FAR SERN MANITOBA WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ETA AND RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAPID CHANGES IN LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS
TO NEAR 8500FT AT MQT AT 12/01Z OWING TO SYNOPTIC-SCALE UVV. THE
SFC-850MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25C
COINCIDENT WITH UNIFORM WNWLY SHEAR PROFILES. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW/BLOWING
SNOW BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY FALL BY 12/04Z
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI
FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.

..BANACOS.. 02/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

46868531 46178444 45798425 45498431 44818474 44518543
44818642 45608683 46108751 46568871 46918924 47278885
47558767 46728689

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.