Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 534

April 22, 2003Las Animas County, Otero County, Colorado; 6 counties in New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 22, 2003, 5:19 PM MDT for Las Animas County, Otero County, Colorado; 6 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 116 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 22, 2003, 5:19 PM MDT (23:19 UTC)
Expired: Apr 22, 2003, 7:15 PM MDT
In force: 116 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Colfax County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 238 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1520 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 97 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 126 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

573 
ACUS11 KWNS 222320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222319 
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-230115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222319Z - 230115Z

PARTS OF ERN NM AND EXTREME SERN CO ARE BEING MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

INTENSE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF STRONG MIDLEVEL WIND MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
ERN/NERN NM/SERN CO ATOP STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED
FROM COLFAX AND MORA COUNTIES...TO WRN ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN ERN NM.
AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ EXISTS WITHIN
A NARROW ZONE BETWEEN THE SLOWLY WWD MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND
DRY LINE OVER WRN GUADALUPE COUNTY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING MOVING INTO THIS REGION...EXPECT THAT MESO/STORM-SCALE
FORCING OCCURRING NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM
INITIATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 

INTENSE DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR EVIDENT ON TCU PROFILER COUPLED
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWN ON RUC FCST SNDGS SUGGEST
THAT STORM UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY PERSISTING. IN
ADDITION...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY CROSS...OR EVEN DEVELOP ON...THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY INDICATING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LARGE HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 04/22/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

34640367 34960482 36520525 37790458 38090321 37160293

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 22, 3:36 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Logan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Yuma	114 min
Apr 22, 2:41 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lea, Roosevelt	94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.