Alert archive / Connecticut / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 53

February 7, 20035 counties in Massachusetts; Suffolk County, New York; 5 counties in Rhode Island

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 7, 2003, 7:37 AM EST for 5 counties in Massachusetts; Suffolk County, New York; 5 counties in Rhode Island. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 7, 2003, 7:37 AM EST (12:37 UTC)
Expired: Feb 7, 2003, 4:30 PM EST
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Barnstable County, MA, Bristol County, MA, Dukes County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Plymouth County, MA, Suffolk County, NY, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 102 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 502 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 82 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 229 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

765 
ACUS11 KWNS 071238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071237 
NYZ000-CTZ000-RIZ000-MAZ000-072130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CST FRI FEB 07 2003

AREAS AFFECTED... LONG ISLAND OF NY...MUCH CT...RI AND SERN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 071237Z - 072130Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OVER 1 INCH WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM
NJ INTO THE REGION THROUGH 07/15Z. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
FROM 4-6 INCHES WILL BE COMMON OVER THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. 



LATEST IR/WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLED UPPER
JET PATTERN OVER NJ/MID-ATLANTIC AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
RAPID INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES OVER SRN/ERN NJ AND
OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASINGLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
UVM AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE. MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE MD/VA THE LAST FEW HOURS ON CYCLONIC
SIDE OF SRN UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSIFYING
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTLY EXTENDING FROM NRN NJ ENEWD
INTO MA. ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE FURTHER
SUPPORTED AHEAD OF NEWD MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER LOCATED 60 SE
OF ACY AT 07/12Z. EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM SW TO
NE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 07/15Z...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION
RATES OVER ERN LONG ISLAND ENEWD ACROSS WRN CT...MOST OF RI AND
SERN MA. TOTAL DURATION OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE GREATEST OVER RI
AND SERN MA ...WHERE LOCALIZED SNOW TOTALS FROM 6-8 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 07/21Z.

..CROSBIE.. 02/07/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

40997194 40387369 41377318 42237177 42237079 41646980

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Rhode Island, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.