Alert archive / Maine / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 50
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 4, 2003, 6:56 AM EST for 7 counties in Maine; Coos County, New Hampshire. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 4, 2003, 6:56 AM EST (11:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 4, 2003, 12:30 PM EST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Aroostook County, ME, Hancock County, ME, Kennebec County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Piscataquis County, ME, Waldo County, ME, Washington County, ME, Coos County, NH
The radar
The Caribou radar (KCBW), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Caribou, ME (KCAR), launched 00:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1004 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 60 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -95 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -40 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
369 ACUS11 KWNS 041156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041156 MEZ000-NHZ000-041730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE AND NRN NH CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 041156Z - 041730Z MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD NRN NH AND ME LATE THIS MORNING FROM SW TO NE. CURRENT SHORT-RANGE MODEL INDICATIONS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO RAIN BETWEEN 18-21Z SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30S HUL TO 30N BGR TO 25W AUG. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 18-21Z IN A NE-SW BAND FROM PQI/CAR INTO THE WHITE MTNS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF FAR WRN ME AND NRN NH...WHERE POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT ICING ARE POSSIBLE. IN WRN AROOSTOOK AND ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR NWRN ME...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW OR BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET WITH RATES OF 1/HR POSSIBLE BY 18-20Z. LARGE-SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE 978MB CYCLONE OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL CONTINUE OVERSPREADING NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH 11Z SFC TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING /AS LOW AS -2F AT PQI/ OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...TRACK OF SFC LOW WEST OF REGION AND 70-80KT SLY TO SWLY FLOW AT 2KM AGL PER ALB VAD WILL BRING STRONG UVV AND WARM ADVECTION TO THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL NCEP PRECIPITATION TYPE GUIDANCE AND 00/06Z ETA MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OVER ALL OF INTERIOR ME AND NRN NH WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR NWRN ME. ...WITH 2M TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE FREEZING CLOSER TO THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.1-0.2/HR ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NRN ME FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXTREMELY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AT ONSET OF EVENT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING. ..BANACOS.. 02/04/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 47156785 46216926 45537065 45726774 45186905 44776975 44287031 45007139 44687152 44407105 44026944 44346844 44916708 45736782 46816781 47256805 47386922 46786982 46417009 45717044 45417071 45267104
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.