Alert archive / Maine / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 50

February 4, 20037 counties in Maine; Coos County, New Hampshire

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 4, 2003, 6:56 AM EST for 7 counties in Maine; Coos County, New Hampshire. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 4, 2003, 6:56 AM EST (11:56 UTC)
Expired
Feb 4, 2003, 12:30 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Aroostook County, ME, Hancock County, ME, Kennebec County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Piscataquis County, ME, Waldo County, ME, Washington County, ME, Coos County, NH

The radar

The Caribou radar (KCBW), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Caribou, ME (KCAR), launched 00:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Caribou, ME at 00:00Z on 2003-02-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Caribou, ME at 00:00Z on 2003-02-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -95 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1004 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-95 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-40 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

369 
ACUS11 KWNS 041156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041156 
MEZ000-NHZ000-041730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE AND NRN NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 041156Z - 041730Z

MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD NRN NH AND ME LATE
THIS MORNING FROM SW TO NE. CURRENT SHORT-RANGE MODEL INDICATIONS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET TO RAIN BETWEEN 18-21Z SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30S
HUL TO 30N BGR TO 25W AUG. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN BETWEEN 18-21Z IN A NE-SW BAND FROM PQI/CAR INTO THE WHITE
MTNS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF FAR WRN ME AND NRN NH...WHERE
POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT ICING ARE POSSIBLE. IN WRN AROOSTOOK AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR NWRN ME...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW OR
BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET WITH RATES OF 1/HR POSSIBLE BY 18-20Z.



LARGE-SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSE 978MB CYCLONE OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL CONTINUE
OVERSPREADING NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH 11Z SFC TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING
/AS LOW AS -2F AT PQI/ OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...TRACK OF SFC
LOW WEST OF REGION AND 70-80KT SLY TO SWLY FLOW AT 2KM AGL PER
ALB VAD WILL BRING STRONG UVV AND WARM ADVECTION TO THE
DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL NCEP PRECIPITATION TYPE GUIDANCE AND 00/06Z ETA
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVER ALL OF INTERIOR ME AND NRN NH WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF FAR NWRN ME. ...WITH 2M TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE
FREEZING CLOSER TO THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN RATES OF
0.1-0.2/HR ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NRN ME FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXTREMELY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AT
ONSET OF EVENT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING.

..BANACOS.. 02/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

47156785 46216926 45537065 

45726774 45186905 44776975 44287031 

45007139 44687152 44407105 44026944 44346844 44916708
45736782 46816781 47256805 47386922 46786982 46417009
45717044 45417071 45267104

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.