Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 49
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 4, 2003, 5:04 AM EST for 30 counties in North Carolina; 16 counties in South Carolina; Halifax County, Mecklenburg County, Virginia. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 4, 2003, 5:04 AM EST (10:04 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 4, 2003, 8:00 AM EST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 48 counties
Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Union County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Sumter County, SC, York County, SC, Halifax County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2773 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 55 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 207 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 240 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
385 ACUS11 KWNS 041005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041004 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-041300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL VA/CNTRL NC/CNTRL AND ERN SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 041004Z - 041300Z POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND DAMAGE EXISTS AS SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. NARROW FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE LEE SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND IS ADVANCING EAST NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 40 KT. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHICH HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED PAST FEW HOURS. WEAK CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE NC AND COLUMBIA SC AREAS BY AROUND 12Z...THEN INTO THE RALEIGH-DURHAM NC AND FLORENCE SC AREAS BY 15Z. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BASED ABOVE MOIST STABLE OR NEAR NEUTRAL SURFACE LAYER...AND SUGGEST MINIMAL LIKELIHOOD OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AT AND ABOVE 850 MB. HOWEVER...DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...SURFACE WINDS ARE STRONG AND GUSTY...AND MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 02/04/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 35818044 36997862 36487775 35357820 33748034 33588183 34078223
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.