Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 481

April 17, 200312 counties in Kentucky

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 17, 2003, 3:58 PM EDT for 12 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 17, 2003, 3:58 PM EDT (19:58 UTC)
Expired
Apr 17, 2003, 6:00 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Bourbon County, KY, Clark County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Madison County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Powell County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Whitley County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 212 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2003-04-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 11 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2003-04-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 65 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
11 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-178 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1486 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
31 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

767 
ACUS11 KWNS 171959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171958 
KYZ000-172200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT THU APR 17 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171958Z - 172200Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW WEST SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE KY
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS JET STREAK PROPAGATES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.  MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER COLD POOL IS SUPPORTING
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A NARROW LINE WEST OF THE
LEXINGTON AND SOMERSET AREAS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED SURFACE HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...NARROW SLOT OF CLEARING IN ADVANCE OF LINE IS
ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST BRIEF PERIOD OF HEATING IN MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS WITH UPPER 50S DEW POINTS.  ALTHOUGH WEAK CAPE
WILL TEND TO LIMIT STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMBIENT VORTICITY NEAR CIRCULATION CENTER SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO...IN
STRONGEST CELLS NEAR/EAST OF THE LEXINGTON AND SOMERSET AREAS
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..KERR.. 04/17/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...

37618446 38098448 38288411 37938379 36728390 36648459

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.