Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 48

February 4, 20035 counties in New York; 5 counties in Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 4, 2003, 12:34 AM EST for 5 counties in New York; 5 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 4, 2003, 12:34 AM EST (05:34 UTC)
Expired: Feb 4, 2003, 9:30 AM EST
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Clinton County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Addison County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Rutland County, VT

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1528 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 130 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 340 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

249 
ACUS11 KWNS 040534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040534 
NYZ000-VTZ000-041430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST MON FEB 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN NY AND WRN VT

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 

VALID 040534Z - 041430Z

A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH 04/08Z. HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW AROUND 04/09Z AND LAST THROUGH 04/12Z. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 0.25 TO 0.35 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.



A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700
MB WAA WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE AREA. 04/05Z SURFACE FREEZING
LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR WATERTOWN ESEWD TO JUST NORTH OF ALB. WET-
BULBING WILL KEEP THIS LINE FROM MOVING NWD OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS.	THEREFORE...EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO
DEVELOP OVER NERN NY/WRN VT OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. SLEET WILL BE
MOST LIKELY OVER WRN VT THROUGH 04/09Z WHERE ELEVATED WARM LAYER
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VERY SMALL. OTHERWISE...THE GREATEST ICING
POTENTIAL THROUGH 04/09Z WILL BE OVER NERN NY...WHERE UP TO 0.10
IN OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. 



STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD AND AID IN
RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER OH/WRN PA
INTO NRN NY/VT AFTER 04/09Z. CONTINUED WAA ABOVE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN VT WILL SUPPORT A THERMAL PROFILE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN AFTER 04/09Z. CURRENT OBSERVED
PRECIPITATION RATES OVER OH/MI AND WRN PA SUGGEST THAT AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 INCH MAY FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 04/09Z AND
04/12Z. 

..CROSBIE.. 02/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

44937466 44507487 43327412 43267303 44137275 44927271

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.