Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 455

April 14, 200310 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 14, 2003, 5:07 PM CDT for 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 14, 2003, 5:07 PM CDT (22:07 UTC)
Expired: Apr 14, 2003, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Ector County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Val Verde County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 248 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -510 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 710 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 261 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

333 
ACUS11 KWNS 142208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142207 
TXZ000-150100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT MON APR 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX -- PECOS VALLEY REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 142207Z - 150100Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION...SE OF
INK TO NEAR RIO GRANDE.  MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS FOR SHORT DURATION.  ACTIVITY
IS STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE WW ATTM
BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE/DURATION OF THREAT.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM CAPROCK W CDS SSWWD TO JUST E
MAF...FST...INTO BIG BEND REGION..PARTICULARLY S OF I-20. 
DRYLINE MAY BACK WWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  TOWERS AND SMALL CB ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY
S FST WHERE DRYLINE INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTIALLY
OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED.	OTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INVOF
DRYLINE AND OVER BIG BEND AREA MOUNTAINS...NWD TO NEAR I-20 AND
SWD INTO MEX.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDING INDICATE DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BOTH ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE WITH 20-30 DEG
SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...YIELDING MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MARGINALLY SUPPORT STORM
ROTATION...PARTICULARLY WHEN CONSIDERING SR PROFILES FOR
RIGHTWARD-DEVIANT...ESEWD TO SSEWD STORM MOTIONS.  ACCORDINGLY
MODIFIED RUC HODOGRAPHS YIELD ROUGHLY 150 K/KG 0-3 KM
SRH...DESPITE WEAKNESSES IN LOW-MIDLEVEL ABSOLUTE FLOWS. 
SFC-BASED SR INFLOW WOULD BE MAXIMIZED INVOF RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WHERE BACKED FLOW IS OBSERVED AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS.  HENCE...ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS OVER THIS REGION HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DOWNDRAFTS NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS.      EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER APPROXIMATELY 02Z
WHEN DIABATIC COOLING IS MORE VIGOROUSLY UNDERWAY...MINIMIZING
MLCAPE/SBCAPE.

..EDWARDS.. 04/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

29100309 31940318 32040172 29350097

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.