Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 451
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 9, 2003, 1:44 PM EDT for 18 counties in Florida; 16 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 9, 2003, 1:44 PM EDT (17:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 9, 2003, 3:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties
Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Clay County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Duval County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Madison County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL, Atkinson County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Camden County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Cook County, GA, Echols County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Ware County, GA
The nearest sounding before it
Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -145 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 756 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 55 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 55 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
860 ACUS11 KWNS 091744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091744 FLZ000-GAZ000-091945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT WED APR 09 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091744Z - 091945Z SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN A LINE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN GA/NRN FL THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. OCCASIONAL BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS MAY DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM CENTRAL GA SSWWD ACROSS APALACHEE BAY...UPON WHICH SOME TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD 25-30 KT ACROSS REGION...REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE -- DEMARCATING SRN PERIPHERY OF MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS COLD-AIR DAMMING REGIME -- IS QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS SRN GA FROM ABOUT 40 N VLD PAST AYS AND OFFSHORE NEAR ST SIMONS ISLAND. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHALLOW MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THESE FRONTS...VERY RICH IN OBSERVED MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S F...AND WITH ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT...MINIMIZING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG CONVECTIVE LINE WITHOUT FAST FORWARD MOTIONS TO ENHANCE SR INFLOW. UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE EXPECTED...SUGGESTING LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN FAVORED. 40-50 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR POSSIBLE...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MESOCYCLONES TO DEVELOP...ALBEIT WITH LIMITED LIFESPANS. ISOLATED HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 04/09/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 29558420 31858327 30968131 29098128
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 11:44 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades and 15 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.