Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 366

April 3, 200313 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 3, 2003, 11:43 PM EST for 13 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 3, 2003, 11:43 PM EST (04:43 UTC)
Expired: Apr 4, 2003, 4:45 AM EST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Barry County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 85 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 28 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 364 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 418 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 561 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

673 
ACUS11 KWNS 040443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040443 
MIZ000-040945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 PM CST THU APR 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 040443Z - 040945Z

FREEZING RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI.  HEAVIER RATES WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY AS ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA OF CONCERN
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.



04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB 32 F...NORTH
OF A LINE FROM GRR TO MTC.  TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT
TO OR BELOW 32 F.  LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED DURING THE LAST HOUR FROM GRR TO FNT.	03Z RUC INDICATES
MID-LEVEL /600-700 MB/ FRONTOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI AS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY APPROACHES THIS REGION
OVERNIGHT.  ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL AID IN PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.  IN ADDITION...A BAND OF STORMS OVER SRN LAKE
MI/FAR SWRN LOWER MI WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE
CONCERN AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...RESULTING IN INCREASED
PRECIPITATION RATES WITH THIS CONVECTION.  POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED CAPE OVER SRN LOWER MI
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A CONVECTIVE THREAT/ HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
RATES.

..PETERS.. 04/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

43028567 43238473 43458314 43008254 42248386 42538546

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 4, 2:29 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Berrien, Branch, Cass, Saint Joseph	91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.