Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 360

April 3, 200311 counties in Montana; 29 counties in North Dakota; 4 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 3, 2003, 12:00 AM MST for 11 counties in Montana; 29 counties in North Dakota; 4 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 3, 2003, 12:00 AM MST (07:00 UTC)
Expired: Apr 3, 2003, 5:00 AM MST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 44 counties

Custer County, MT, Daniels County, MT, Dawson County, MT, Fallon County, MT, McCone County, MT, Prairie County, MT, Richland County, MT, Roosevelt County, MT, Sheridan County, MT, Valley County, MT, Wibaux County, MT, Adams County, ND, Benson County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Divide County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Towner County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND, Corson County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Ziebach County, SD

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 667 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 179 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 619 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

261 
ACUS11 KWNS 030700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030700 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-031200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST THU APR 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT...WRN/CENTRAL ND...NWRN SD

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 030700Z - 031200Z

THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z...MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED RIGHTWARD OF THE LINE FROM ROUGHLY 60 NNE DVL MBG 50
N RAP 80 NNW GGW.  PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THIS AREA AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVER PORTIONS SERN
MT/NWRN SD IN 10-12Z TIME FRAME.  SNOW RATES WILL BE MAINLY UNDER
1 INCH/HOUR EXCEPT FOR BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  SLEET IS
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE LESS COMMON THAN SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN
OVER ENTIRE AREA BASED ON FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.  MOST
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE OVER NWRN SD INTO CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL
ND...S AND E OF 700 MB ZERO ISOTHERM AND IN AREA OF STRONGEST
PROGGED 700-800 MB LAYER WARM FRONTOGENESIS...WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY THICK SUPERFREEZING LAYER TO
GENERATE RAIN ALOFT.  FREEZING RAIN RATES TO .5 INCH/HOUR MAY
OCCUR FROM NWRN SD TO CENTRAL ND...SOME OF IT WITH THUNDER.



REGIONAL VWP AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT IN LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS AS POSTFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER ELIS
UNDERCUT MOISTENING SW-SSW FLOW ALOFT.	EXPECT BOTH MIDLEVEL DPVA
AND LOW-MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE FURTHER AND SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AHEAD OF NEWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SWRN MT AND
WRN WY.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING RH AT BOTTOM
OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER YIELD ELEVATED MUCAPE 100-300 J/KG OVER
PORTIONS NWRN SD/SWRN AND CENTRAL ND IN NOWCAST SOUNDINGS...MUCH
OF WHICH IS IN AN IDEAL CHARGE SEPARATION LAYER. THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL LIGHTING...ALREADY OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS BUTTE COUNTY
SD IN PAST HOUR...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEWD TOWARD BIS AREA AND AS
FAR W AS NEAR ISN.

..EDWARDS.. 04/03/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

47419916 46179982 45040079 44750267 45230333 46160335
47620255 48720014 

48979926 47910155 45830421 46330597 48320718 49030710
49009923

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.