Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 355
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 30, 2003, 12:07 AM EST for 6 states. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 30, 2003, 12:07 AM EST (05:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 30, 2003, 4:00 AM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 91 counties
Fannin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Towns County, GA, Union County, GA, White County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Cherokee County, NC, Clay County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Surry County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Oconee County, SC, Pickens County, SC, Blount County, TN, Carter County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Washington County, TN, Alleghany County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Norton, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Highland County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Braxton County, WV, Clay County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Summers County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wyoming County, WV
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 183 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -41 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1309 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 106 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 192 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 300508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300507 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-300900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 PM CST SAT MAR 29 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV/WRN VA SWD INTO ERN TN/WRN NC CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 300507Z - 300900Z HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM FAR WRN NC NWD INTO ERN WV AND WRN VA BY 08 OR 09Z. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS PRECIPITATION SHIELD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO EXPAND NEWD ACROSS AL/WRN GA INTO WRN NC. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AHEAD OF THIS PRECIPITATION INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SMOKEY MOUNTAINS WITH GENERALLY MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ERN WV/WRN VA. 00Z ETA AND 03Z RUC GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AS AS DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOREOVER...RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING 700-500 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE AND DEEPEN VERTICAL CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER JET EXIT REGION. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD CREATE SURFACE CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW AT THIS TIME. RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AS THIS DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THAT PORTION OF SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH. THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME BEFORE THE STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTS E ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. ..MEAD.. 03/30/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC... 38038168 38888076 38907993 38737937 38097919 37377976 36688046 35658132 35168190 34758284 34558365 34848439 35338453 36638308
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 10:10 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albemarle, Amherst, Augusta, Bath, Clarke, Frederick and 19 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.