Mesoscale Discussion 35

Issued

Feb 1, 2003, 8:44 PM EST (01:44 UTC)

Expired

Feb 2, 2003, 3:45 AM EST

In force

7 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Androscoggin County, ME, Aroostook County, ME, Franklin County, ME, Hancock County, ME, Kennebec County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Penobscot County, ME, Piscataquis County, ME, Somerset County, ME, Waldo County, ME, Washington County, ME, Carroll County, NH

The Caribou radar (KCBW), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

094 
ACUS11 KWNS 020145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020144 
MEZ000-NHZ000-020845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CST SAT FEB 01 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ME AND ERN NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 020144Z - 020845Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
ME THROUGH 02/06Z. FARTHER WEST...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN NH/NWRN ME AFTER 02/06Z. HOURLY LIQUID
EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS FROM 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION RATES
WILL LIKELY BE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN/DOWNEAST ME...WHERE MOD ICING
IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02/03Z AND 02/09Z. 



RECENT TRENDS IN SAT IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. SFC REFLECTION HAS
BEEN A STEADY DROP IN PRESSURES OVER THE LAST 3-5 HOURS FROM SRN
NEW ENGLAND AND SWD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS STILL 300 MILES SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. PERSISTENT 2-4 MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT NNELY GRADIENT WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN CURRENT WET-BULB FREEZING LINE FROM 30 N OF CON
EWD TO 20 MILES INLAND OF THE COAST OF ME. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING UVM DUE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
120 KT UPPER JET AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA
PROFILE AS NOTED ON REGIONAL VWP/S WILL SUPPORT A NWD MOVEMENT OF
THIS PRECIPITATION INTO DOWNEAST/ERN ME THROUGH 02/06Z.



00Z SOUNDING FROM GYX SUGGESTS THAT SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A
NARROW TRANSITION ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN ME OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BUT CONTINUED WARMING IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LINE TO SHIFT NWD TO ALONG
AN AXIS FROM 25 W OF AUG TO 45 N OF BGR BY 02/06Z. ACROSS FAR
NERN ME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY
TURN TO SLEET WITH CONTINUED WAA THROUGH 02/06Z. FARTHER WEST
OVER FAR NWRN ME AND ERN NH...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
EXTRAPOLATED GYX/ALB 00Z SOUNDINGS FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BAND OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW OVER THIS AREA AFTER
02/06Z. 

..CROSBIE.. 02/02/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

44986708 44386878 43527115 44087125 45057090 47266917
46876777 45756773

Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.