Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 337

March 26, 200331 counties in North Carolina; 32 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 26, 2003, 3:15 PM EST for 31 counties in North Carolina; 32 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 26, 2003, 3:15 PM EST (20:15 UTC)
Expired: Mar 26, 2003, 6:15 PM EST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 63 counties

Alamance County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Amelia County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King William County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1637 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 54 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 127 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

073 
ACUS11 KWNS 262016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262015 
VAZ000-NCZ000-262315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CST WED MAR 26 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN VA SWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 262015Z - 262315Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL VA SWD INTO CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF ERN NC THROUGH 27/00Z. MARGINAL NATURE AND
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WEATHER WATCH. 



19Z SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FROM CENTRAL/ERN NC NWD INTO SCENTRAL/SERN
VA.  DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WITH
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. RECENT RUC/ETA POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL
HOWEVER... WITH BETWEEN 500-1000 MUCAPE. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
HEATING/STRONG ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING TRENDS IN CONVECTION THROUGH 26/22Z. 25 TO 35
KT 1-3 KM WIND FIELDS NOTED ON REGIONAL VWP/S ALONG WITH
INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. 



..CROSBIE.. 03/26/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

35288068 36437972 37817783 37997719 37247642 35377786
34717919

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.