Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 331

March 25, 200325 counties in Arkansas; DeSoto County, Tunica County, Mississippi; Shelby County, Tipton County, Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 25, 2003, 5:39 PM CST for 25 counties in Arkansas; DeSoto County, Tunica County, Mississippi; Shelby County, Tipton County, Tennessee. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 25, 2003, 5:39 PM CST (23:39 UTC)
Expired: Mar 25, 2003, 7:45 PM CST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 29 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, DeSoto County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 24 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 13 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -639 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1049 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

261 
ACUS11 KWNS 252339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252339 
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-260145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL THROUGH NE TX AND EXTREME SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...74...

VALID 252339Z - 260145Z

SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND INTENSIFY ALONG A LINE
NOW FROM MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK SWWD THROUGH UVALDE COUNTY TX. 
ACTIVITY MAY FILL GAPS E OF DFW METROPLEX AND BACKBUILD THROUGH
MAVERICK COUNTY TX ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO MEX.	 OCCASIONAL
SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE FOR CELLS DISCRETELY
PROPAGATING SWD ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX...UNTIL
THEY MERGE WITH ACTIVITY FARTHER SW.



SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH -- COLOCATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
LINE...PARALLEL AND APPROXIMATELY 30-40 NM AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT.	 SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER NERN DALLAS/ROCKWALL COUNTIES
SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS NERN TX BETWEEN I-20 AND I-30 FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS...HELPING TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG FRONTAL
SEGMENT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS BOWIE/RED RIVER COUNTIES TX AND SRN
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK.  PAT PROFILER SHOWS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
SHEAR...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK
OF LARGELY LINEAR/MULTICELL CONVECTION WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.  8-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
400-700 MB LAYER...ATOP SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY 60S
F...YIELD MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG.  WITH DIABATIC SURFACE COOLING
AND DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WIND PROFILES
AVAILABLE TO TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND PARALLEL
TO PREFRONTAL TROUGH...HELPING TO SOLIDIFY CONVECTIVE LINE.

..EDWARDS.. 03/25/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

35189309 35688936 34908969 33229280 33579326 35189314

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 25, 1:39 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Howard, Little River, Sevier	3 hr
Mar 25, 1:58 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Faulkner, Greene and 11 more	2 hr
Mar 25, 2:40 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Baxter, Boone, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead and 15 more	5 hr
Mar 25, 3:05 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Howard, Little River, Montgomery, Pike, Polk, Scott and 1 more	6 hr
Mar 25, 4:55 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Crittenden, Cross and 19 more	3 hr
Mar 25, 5:20 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Arkansas, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Conway, Craighead and 36 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.