Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 321
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 21, 2003, 12:19 PM MST for 8 counties in New Mexico; 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 21, 2003, 12:19 PM MST (19:19 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 21, 2003, 3:15 PM MST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 25 counties
Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Crane County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Terry County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 304 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2030 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -48 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 15 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
824 ACUS11 KWNS 211920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211919 TXZ000-NMZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CST FRI MAR 21 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211919Z - 212215Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 30S WITH A PLUME OF LOWER 40S F DEWPOINTS HEADING INTO ERN NM ON SELY WINDS. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING OBSERVED DEWPOINTS ARE YIELDING 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST WITH UPPER VORT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN WEAK WIND PROFILES UNDERNEATH UPPER VORT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT OVER NM. FURTHER SOUTH OVER SW TX...LARGER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS THROUGHOUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS HAIL. SHEAR PROFILES SOUTH OF A INK TO MAF LINE ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. ANY ORGANIZED STORMS OVER SW TX WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS SOME HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN INGEST 35-40 SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST TO THE EAST. ..JEWELL.. 03/21/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30350340 32290517 33620574 35090521 35370378 33910262 31370144 30370196 30110240
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.