Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 3

January 1, 20034 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2003, 2:27 AM EST for 4 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 1, 2003, 2:27 AM EST (07:27 UTC)
Expired: Jan 1, 2003, 4:30 AM EST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe thunderstorm potential

Counties Glades County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Martin County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Miami, FL (KMFL), launched 00:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 336 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 692 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 199 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 303 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 010728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010727 
FLZ000-010930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CST WED JAN 01 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL FL PEN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 010727Z - 010930Z

POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO SHORT DURATION/SMALL AREAL COVERAGE
OF THREAT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED COOLING TOPS IN CLUSTER OF
STORMS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.	THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY MID/UPPER FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK.  SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...AND VERY MOIST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION NEXT
FEW HOURS.


INTENSE CELL IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 35 KT...ALONG
SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH
EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
SOUTH OF VERO BEACH.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE...AND PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BEFORE STRONGEST
STORMS SHIFT OFFSHORE BY 09-10Z.

..KERR.. 01/01/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

26968008 26548059 26308094 26228137 26458142 26718145
27018116 27268090 27448055 27518032

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 31, 10:39 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hendry, Highlands and 2 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.