Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 28

January 20, 2003Lewis County, Oswego County, New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 20, 2003, 4:06 AM EST for Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 20, 2003, 4:06 AM EST (09:06 UTC)
Expired
Jan 20, 2003, 7:00 AM EST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2003-01-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2003-01-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 92 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1037 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
92 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

397 
ACUS11 KWNS 200907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200906 
NYZ000-201200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CST MON JAN 20 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 200906Z - 201200Z

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WITH SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLY IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS
OSWEGO... LEWIS...ONEIDA...AND HERKIMER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS...LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...AND COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF ARCTIC FROPA WILL
RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITION IN SOME AREAS.



IR SATELLITE INDICATES COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND BACKBUILDING SNOW
BAND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR
ALOFT /NEARING -30C AT 700MB/ SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH OVER THE
LAKE WAS SUPPORTING A WELL ORGANIZED SNOW BAND OVER SRN JEFFERSON
AND NRN LEWIS COUNTIES AT 09Z. THIS BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING SEWD
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MEAN CLOUD LAYER FLOW HAS VEERED IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY
MEAN WNWLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LAKE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS SUGGESTING THAT BAND MAY SLOW ITS SEWD
PROGRESSION AND BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS THE COUNTIES
MENTIONED ABOVE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...FETCH...LACK OF
INVERSION...AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOWFLAKE
GROWTH BY DEPOSITION AND AGGREGATION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.

..CARBIN.. 01/20/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

43807579 44037509 43757478 43257573 43447666

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.