Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 271

March 18, 200329 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 18, 2003, 2:03 AM CST for 29 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 18, 2003, 2:03 AM CST (08:03 UTC)
Expired
Mar 18, 2003, 5:00 AM CST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 29 counties

Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Collin County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Llano County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Mills County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Williamson County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-03-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 401 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-03-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 40 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
401 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1196 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
133 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

186 
ACUS11 KWNS 180803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180803 
TXZ000-181100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 180803Z - 181100Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM CNTRL THROUGH N CNTRL TX INTO THE MORNING. HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
WW.



LATEST SURFACE DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT FROM E OF MINERAL WELLS IN
N CNTRL TX SWWD TO JUST W OF FREDERICKSBURG TO E OF DEL RIO
MOVING EWD. WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT/STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET THAT IS APPROACHING S CNTRL TX. A
NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM CNTRL
THROUGH N CNTRL TX WHERE THERMAL TROUGH IN EXIT REGION HAS
OVERTAKEN MOIST AXIS. THE ZONE OF STRONGER ASCENT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NEWD...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING THE FRONT. AS THIS
OCCURS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG OR JUST BEHIND
SURFACE FRONT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 03/18/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

30559920 32689801 33459681 32829573 31359622 30309784

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 8:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Bosque, Clay, Cooke, Denton, Eastland and 13 more86 min
Mar 17, 10:27 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 20 more3 hr
Mar 18, 9:36 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin and 22 more3 hr
Mar 18, 11:40 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAngelina, Brazoria, Chambers, Galveston, Hardin, Harris and 13 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.