Alert archive / Connecticut / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2613

December 14, 20035 counties in Massachusetts; 5 counties in New York; Bristol County, Kent County, Providence County, Rhode Island

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 14, 2003, 6:37 PM EST for 5 counties in Massachusetts; 5 counties in New York; Bristol County, Kent County, Providence County, Rhode Island. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 14, 2003, 6:37 PM EST (23:37 UTC)
Expired: Dec 14, 2003, 11:30 PM EST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Bristol County, MA, Essex County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Dutchess County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Providence County, RI

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 966 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 195 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 298 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

978 
ACUS11 KWNS 142338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142337 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-150430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY/NRN NJ/SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 142337Z - 150430Z

A NARROW AND COMPLEX PTYPE TRANSITION ZONE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
NWD ACROSS SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND NWWD ACROSS SERN NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO PUMP WARMER AIR AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ATOP COLD
SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS. WHILE RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AT MOST COASTAL
AREAS WITHIN 1-2 HOURS...SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR WET SNOW
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. A LITTLE FARTHER
INLAND...SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN BECOMING MORE PREDOMINATE WITH TIME. SNOW WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THE DOMINATE PTYPE NORTH OF A LINE FROM POU TO I90 AND ALONG
AND NORTH OF I90 TO NW OF BOS THROUGH ABOUT 15/05Z....WITH A
TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION EVEN THIS FAR INLAND AFTER 05Z.

LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP WAS SHOWING BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ACROSS SERN NY AND PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...THIS TREND WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGHER 
REFLECTIVITY ECHOES WERE CONSOLIDATING OVER LONG ISLAND...AS WELL AS
ERN PA. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE FREEZING LINE HAS ONLY
MADE IT INLAND AS FAR AS A HPN-PVD-FMH-BOS LINE AT 23Z/6PM EST.
DESPITE THIS SLOW INLAND PENETRATION OF THE WARMER SURFACE AIR...
INTENSE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE AIDED BY
70KT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MUCH OF CT/RI AND SERN MA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW IN MOST OF THESE AREAS TO RAIN NEAR
THE COAST...AND SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN INLAND.

..CARBIN.. 12/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

40937376 41157426 41547441 41847385 42217240 42377148
42757092 42807068 41947076 41617096

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 14, 12:14 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		5 hr
Dec 14, 6:56 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Chenango, Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and 13 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.