Mesoscale Discussion 2602

Issued

Dec 12, 2003, 5:57 PM CST (23:57 UTC)

Expired

Dec 13, 2003, 12:00 AM CST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

895 
ACUS11 KWNS 122357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122357 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN OK/SRN KS...SWRN MO AND NWRN AR

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 122357Z - 130600Z

BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SCENTRAL...SERN KS
AND FAR NCENTRAL/NERN OK INTO SWRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION INTENSIFIES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD.
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING FARTHER SOUTH OVER NERN OK INTO NWRN AR.

IN THE MEANTIME MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF EWD MOVING DRY-SLOT WILL
AID IN A CONTINUED NARROWING OF THE WINTER PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A PURE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE WILL EXIST
OVER NERN OK/SERN KS AND SWRN MO AS UPPER DIVERGENCE FORCED
PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER BASED ON RUC40
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN DIMINISHING TRENDS IN
MODERATE SLEET OVER CENTRAL OK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...STRONG ASCENT NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS EVIDENT OF
THE FORCING IN THE 600-400 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE DRY SLOT FROM TOTALLY
DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL OK AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY SLOT
DEVELOPMENT...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME
THE DOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW STILL LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LATER THIS EVENING.

THE EFFECT OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT WILL BE TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE 700-500 MB FRONTAL ZONE
CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS FAR NRN OK/SRN KS INTO SWRN MO.
THEREFORE...A BAND...OR POSSIBLY MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW
INTENSIFYING OVER SCENTRAL KS/NWRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD INTO FAR NERN OK/SERN KS AND EVENTUALLY SWRN
MO/NWRN AR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES.

..CROSBIE.. 12/12/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

38389739 38059913 37369929 36849925 36139755 36329414
36779362 37879410 

36029719 35909785 34919877 34829883 34509816 35709635

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.