Mesoscale Discussion 2575

Issued

Dec 6, 2003, 6:51 PM EST (23:51 UTC)

Expired

Dec 6, 2003, 10:45 PM EST

In force

4 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Portland,ME radar (KGYX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

088 
ACUS11 KWNS 062352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062351 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-070345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CST SAT DEC 06 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 

VALID 062351Z - 070345Z

THROUGH 09Z... HVY SNOW WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH N-CENTRAL ME. 
RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD ACROSS SERN MA. SNOW RATES
OF 1-2/HR...WITH INCREASING NELY WINDS/NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FROM NERN MA NWD THROUGH MUCH OF NH AND SRN/CENTRAL ME.
SNOW RATES SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS FAR ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND.

AT 23Z...LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL ON IR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH 996MB
SURFACE LOW 100 SSE OF BID WILL TRACK NEWD TO 50E OF CAPE COD BY
06Z. CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 8MB DURING PAST 7 HRS AND TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE AS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT.

MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
ONE QUASI-STATIONARY N-S BAND ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EXTREME
WRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE. PRECIPITATION ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AS SHOWN IN VEERING ON BOX/GYX VAD
PROFILES...WITH MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT IN VICINITY OF COASTAL FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NARRAGANSETT BAY NEWD TO NEAR BOS. BACKING WIND AT
BOS AT 23Z AND 5F TEMPERATURE FALL INDICATES THAT COASTAL FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO RETREAT SEWD.

THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...RAIN/SNOW LINE MARKED BY COASTAL FRONT SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD ACROSS SERN MA DURING NEXT 3-6 HOURS AS SURFACE
WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO LOW TRACK. ADDITIONALLY... DYNAMIC COOLING
AS 500MB LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND... INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM
JET/VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SHOULD BRING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHORE OF MA AND CAPE COD BY 06Z. SNOW BAND OVER FAR WRN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD WEAKEN BY 06Z AS FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA
BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS NERN MA...NH...AND ME...AIDED BY LONG/MOIST
ELY FETCH OF 60-65KT FLOW IN THE 1-2KM LAYER. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN REFLECTIVITY/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING LAST HOUR IN THE GULF
OF ME WILL MOVE NWWD INTO NERN MA/NH/MUCH OF ME DURING THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS. THIS TREND SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD 1-2/HR SNOW RATES ACROSS
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA THROUGH 09Z. ISOLATED 3/HR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS FROM THE WHITE MTNS NEWD INTO
CENTRAL ME...CONSISTENT WITH QPF FROM 18Z ETA.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BRING GUSTS OVER 35 MPH...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF ERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NELY GUSTS OF
50-55KT HAVE BEEN NOTED ON 23Z BUOY OBS JUST OFF THE ME COAST.

..BANACOS/PETERS.. 12/06/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

41656950 40917106 41117343 42137380 44537351 45017189
46626941 46946889 45836766 43546753

Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.