Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2549

November 23, 200321 counties in Minnesota; Bayfield County, Burnett County, Douglas County, Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 23, 2003, 9:28 AM CST for 21 counties in Minnesota; Bayfield County, Burnett County, Douglas County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 23, 2003, 9:28 AM CST (15:28 UTC)
Expired
Nov 23, 2003, 2:30 PM CST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 24 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Cass County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Cook County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Lake County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Pine County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Wright County, MN, Bayfield County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Douglas County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2003-11-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2003-11-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 83 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
815 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
76 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
83 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
169 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

269 
ACUS11 KWNS 231528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231528 
MNZ000-WIZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...E THROUGH NE MN AND EXTREME NW WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 231528Z - 232030Z

BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER
HOUR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS ERN/NERN MN INTO EXTREME NWRN WI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG MID/UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
NEWD THROUGH MN AND WI TODAY ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER ERN IA
WILL TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH WI. UPPER JET WILL LIFT NNEWD THROUGH WI
WITH AXIS OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN
EXIT REGION ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH ERN MN AND NWRN WI. IT
APPEARS FORCING WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AND NERN
MN TO MAINTAIN ASCENT WITHIN LAYERS FAVORABLE FOR ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH. HOWEVER...DRY SLOT ADVANCING NNEWD TOWARD WI WILL LIMIT ERN
EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOW. THE 12Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 TO 500 MB ABOVE A DEEP ISOTHERMAL
LAYER...SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW WILL OCCUR. RATES
MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED OVER NE MN BY HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID CONTENT.

..DIAL.. 11/23/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

48359255 47399430 45309484 44879324 46269168 47268996
48009002

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 22, 10:15 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Blue Earth, Brown and 44 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.