Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2539

November 19, 200353 counties in North Carolina; 19 counties in South Carolina; 7 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 19, 2003, 6:31 AM EST for 53 counties in North Carolina; 19 counties in South Carolina; 7 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 19, 2003, 6:31 AM EST (11:31 UTC)
Expired
Nov 19, 2003, 8:30 AM EST
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 79 counties

Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Union County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Horry County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC, Carroll County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, Grayson County, VA, Henry County, VA, Patrick County, VA

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2003-11-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 67 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2003-11-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 277 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
67 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
553 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
277 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
409 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

486 
ACUS11 KWNS 191132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191131 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-191330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 AM CST WED NOV 19 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NC...UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191131Z - 191330Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
AND PERHAPS SRN VA...BEFORE 13Z.

NARROW LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE HAS PICKED UP SOME SPEED AND WAS
MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE SC FROM 230 DEGREES AT 36KT. A COUPLE OF VERY
SMALL SCALE LEWPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE LINE OVER
SPARTANBURG COUNTY FROM GSP RADAR. IN ADDITION REFLECTIVITY HAS
RECENTLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY ON THE APEX OF THE ARC...MOVING INTO
UNION COUNTY SC. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AREAS. GSP VWP DATA SHOWS PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT
BEHIND THE LINE AND MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND SHIFT
SHOULD SUSTAIN THE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT A CORRIDOR OF
VERY HIGH 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 400 M2/S2 WAS SITUATED AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SMALL SCALE LEWPS AND
BOWS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF TORNADOES.

..CARBIN.. 11/19/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

35588160 36788128 36647755 33757818 33838165

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 19, 2:20 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba and 17 more6 hr
Nov 19, 5:14 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Burke, Cabarrus, Catawba, Cleveland, Davidson and 10 more61 min
Nov 19, 7:25 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCAlamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Anson, Ashe, Bladen and 48 more6 hr
Nov 19, 10:57 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret, Chowan and 25 more93 min
Nov 19, 11:25 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 19 more6 hr
Nov 19, 11:29 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke and 20 more61 min
Nov 19, 2:27 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 10 more93 min
Nov 19, 3:59 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCamden, Currituck, Dare, Hyde, Tyrrell61 min
Nov 19, 1:18 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAbbeville, Anderson, Oconee57 min
Nov 19, 4:20 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBeaufort, Hampton, Jasper6 hr
Nov 19, 8:10 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbemarle, Alleghany, Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Arlington and 53 more3 hr
Nov 19, 8:50 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCAlbemarle, Alleghany, Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Arlington and 82 more6 hr
Nov 19, 12:47 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAmelia, Arlington, Brunswick, Caroline, Chesterfield, Clarke and 38 more118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.