Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 2521
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 18, 2003, 9:55 AM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 65 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 18, 2003, 9:55 AM CST (15:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 18, 2003, 11:00 AM CST
- In force
- 65 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 69 counties
Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Garland County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Labette County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Adair County, OK, Atoka County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Coal County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 357 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -6 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 576 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 75 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 18 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 72 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
525 ACUS11 KWNS 181556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181555 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-181700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OKM / SERN KS / SWRN MO / WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181555Z - 181700Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE / INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. NEW WW WILL BE LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS ERN OK / WRN AR ATTM WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BEHIND CONVECTIVE LINE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION BENEATH RAPIDLY COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN OK JUST AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE / MOVE EWD INTO AR AND SRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES / COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL ACROSS THIS REGION. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ..GOSS.. 11/18/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 37369541 37789422 36989216 34349276 33669377 33999619 35259649
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 7:48 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calhoun, Columbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more | 87 min |
| Nov 18, 1:29 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Clay, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 21 more | 3 hr |
| Nov 18, 1:55 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clay and 34 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 18, 10:55 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benton, Calhoun, Clark, Conway, Crawford, Dallas and 24 more | 5 hr |
| Nov 18, 1:11 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Clark, Conway, Crawford, Dallas, Franklin and 22 more | 2 hr |
| Nov 18, 2:50 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun and 38 more | 5 hr |
| Nov 18, 4:44 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun and 34 more | 2 hr |
| Nov 18, 7:35 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cape Girardeau, Mississippi, Scott | 115 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.