Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 25
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 16, 2003, 12:07 PM EST for 9 counties in Kentucky; 15 counties in Tennessee; 7 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 16, 2003, 12:07 PM EST (17:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 16, 2003, 4:00 PM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 31 counties
Bell County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Knox County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Campbell County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Clay County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Scott County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Union County, TN, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Wise County, VA
The radar
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 231 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2377 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 75 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 250 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 355 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
951 ACUS11 KWNS 161707 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161707 TNZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-162100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CST THU JAN 16 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/ERN TN...SERN KY...SWRN VA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 161707Z - 162100Z BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 90 TO 100 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF THIS SPEED MAXIMUM HAS SUPPORTED AREA OF ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF NASHVILLE TN. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS...WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EVOLVING ALONG TIGHTENING LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EAST OF NASHVILLE INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF LONDON KY AND NEAR/NORTH OF BRISTOL TN. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY ACROSS THIS REGION...INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION...WITH STRONG LIFT IN FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...SHOULD QUICKLY SATURATE AIR MASS. THIS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWS...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 01/16/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 36368597 36598577 36878495 37068386 37228301 37248241 36908186 36428226 36338310 36178381 36088462 36068550
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 3:50 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alleghany, Amherst, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt and 28 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.