Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 2449
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 16, 2003, 8:15 PM CDT for 27 counties in Arkansas; 19 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 16, 2003, 8:15 PM CDT (01:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 16, 2003, 10:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 46 counties
Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Barry County, MO, Carter County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 53 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -103 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1729 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 60 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 240 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
680 ACUS11 KWNS 170115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170115 ARZ000-MOZ000-170315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2449 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0815 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO AND NRN AR CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 170115Z - 170315Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR THIS EVENING. A FEW TSTMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STARTING TO ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS SWRN MO AND NERN OK AND WILL SWEEP QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE CAPPED PER 00 UTC SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...STRONG UVV SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ENCOURAGE ELEVATED CONVECTION TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH LATE EVENING. INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SPREAD NWD THROUGH ERN OK THROUGH THE DAY AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES 500-750 J/KG MUCAPE INTO SWRN MO. IN FACT...00 UTC KSGF SOUNDING SHOWS H5 TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN LATEST ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MAGNITUDE OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL MOTION SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD PULSE SEVERE TYPE STORMS WITH HAIL. ..RACY.. 10/17/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37419379 37789298 37729146 36669049 34889121 34669268 35349386 36749428
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.