Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2385

September 18, 20034 counties in Maryland; 6 counties in North Carolina; 18 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 18, 2003, 4:03 PM EDT for 4 counties in Maryland; 6 counties in North Carolina; 18 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 18, 2003, 4:03 PM EDT (20:03 UTC)
Expired
Sep 18, 2003, 6:00 PM EDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 28 counties

Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Camden County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Gates County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Accomack County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2003-09-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 173 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2003-09-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 229 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
173 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
484 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
229 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
266 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

698 
ACUS11 KWNS 182004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182003 
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-182200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC...ERN VA AND SRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 925...

VALID 182003Z - 182200Z

TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FROM NERN NC
THROUGH ERN VA AND SRN MD...IT APPEARS OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL.

THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL HAS MOVED INLAND ONTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF ERN NC. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH LARGE
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAINS N OF THE CENTER AS FAR N AS SRN MD.
HOWEVER...THE DENSE OVERCAST AND WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS LIMITED FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TO ELY FROM
NERN NC NWD THROUGH COASTAL VA AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN VA INTO
SRN MD THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE RADAR HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY FOR A
FEW DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING
WILL TEND TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF ANY LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...AND AS A RESULT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN VERY
MARGINAL.

..DIAL.. 09/18/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...

35977660 36747687 38287662 38407539 37887512 36217558

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 18, 4:04 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDorchester, Somerset, Wicomico, Worcester3 hr
Sep 18, 7:44 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalvert, Dorchester, Saint Mary's, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico and 1 more2 hr
Sep 18, 8:25 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCSaint Mary's, Somerset, Worcester12 hr
Sep 18, 12:03 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSaint Mary's, Somerset, Worcester117 min
Sep 18, 6:44 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalvert, Charles, Dorchester, Saint Mary's, Somerset91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.