Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2349

September 7, 2003Chaves County, Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 25 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 7, 2003, 4:13 PM MDT for Chaves County, Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 25 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 7, 2003, 4:13 PM MDT (22:13 UTC)
Expired: Sep 7, 2003, 6:45 PM MDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 28 counties

Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Terry County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -255 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1506 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

644 
ACUS11 KWNS 072214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072213 
TXZ000-NMZ000-080045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT SUN SEP 07 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX/SE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072213Z - 080045Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 1Z OVER
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGIONS...SWD INTO HIGHER
TERRAIN OF BIG BEND AREA....MOVING GENERALLY EWD 10-15 KT.  LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  

SEVERAL COUNTERACTING FACTORS EVIDENT WHICH WILL EVOLVE OVER NEXT
FEW HOURS...IN THE NET...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SEVERE.
 LOW-END SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT...ALSO SUPPORTING ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH BRIEF EPISODES OF ROTATION.  PROFILER/VWP
DATA...WITH RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS...SUGGEST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR STORM ROTATION...I.E. 35-40 KT IN 0-6 KM AGL LAYER. 
LOW LEVEL SR INFLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG -- AROUND 20-25 KT -- HELPING
TO COUNTERACT TENDENCIES FOR OUTFLOW-DOMINANCE RELATED TO STRONG
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF PRECIP FALLING THROUGH DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYERS. 
VERY WEAK ABSOLUTE AND SR FLOWS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 2-4 KM AGL
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...STRENGTHENING
LLJ.  25-35 DEG F SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND 6.5-7.5 DEG C/KM
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...BECOMING
800-1200 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE AFTER DARK...WHEN COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH OVER DISCUSSION AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

28970321 30350399 32620565 33430530 33840362 32900128
31400081 29720148

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 7, 1:49 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth and 21 more	116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.