Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 233

March 13, 200316 counties in New York; 7 counties in Ohio; 9 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 13, 2003, 8:39 AM EST for 16 counties in New York; 7 counties in Ohio; 9 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 13, 2003, 8:39 AM EST (13:39 UTC)
Expired: Mar 13, 2003, 11:45 AM EST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 32 counties

Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Erie County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Ashtabula County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Lake County, OH, Portage County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Bradford County, PA, Crawford County, PA, Erie County, PA, Forest County, PA, McKean County, PA, Potter County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Warren County, PA

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 604 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 253 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

079 
ACUS11 KWNS 131340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131339 
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-131645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...NWRN PA...AND WRN NY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 131339Z - 131645Z

MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM NRN OH INTO
NWRN/N-CENTRAL PA AND WRN/CENTRAL NY THROUGH LATE MORNING.
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO N-CENTRAL/NERN OH...WHERE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING RAIN
RATES POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 0.1/HR FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. 



850-700MB WARM ADVECTION ZONE IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN IL/IND AT 1330Z WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NERN
OH...NWRN PA...AND WRN NY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXISTENCE OF NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SUBFREEZING
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NERN OH...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
FAVOR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PERHAPS ENDING AS
SNOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS COLD ADVECTION
COMMENCES WITH PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH. WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING
ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL OH JUST NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT
SUGGESTS EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREEZING RAIN RATES NEAR 0.1-0.2/HR ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN OH.



ELSEWHERE...MODERATE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD NWRN PA AND WRN NY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.

..BANACOS.. 03/13/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

41537771 41417979 41048157 41208214 41858190 42807894
42987731 42667574 41557574

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 13, 12:23 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Chemung, Delaware, Orange and 6 more	4 hr
Mar 12, 10:51 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Fulton, Lucas, Williams	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.