Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2313

August 29, 20035 counties in Ohio; 18 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 29, 2003, 4:51 PM EDT for 5 counties in Ohio; 18 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 29, 2003, 4:51 PM EDT (20:51 UTC)
Expired
Aug 29, 2003, 6:15 PM EDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 23 counties

Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Stark County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Butler County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Elk County, PA, Forest County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Potter County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Venango County, PA

The radar

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2003-08-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1227 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2003-08-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 52 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1227 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
756 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
52 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
53 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 292052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292051 
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-WVZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OH...NWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 909...

VALID 292051Z - 292215Z

LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NW PA...WHILE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MOVE EWD ACROSS OH PORTION WW...BEFORE
SCHEDULED 23Z WW EXPIRATION.  MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING
WIND...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL PSBL.

VWP DATA AND MODIFIED RUC2 SOUNDINGS INDICATE SRN PERIPHERY OF BELT
OF 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THIS REGION.  THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT DAMAGING CONVECTIVE
GUSTS...IN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND PROFILE...PARTICULARLY
FOR BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS THAT BECOME ORIENTED SIGNIFICANTLY
PERPENDICULAR TO MEAN FLOW.  AT SFC...SECONDARY ISALLOBARIC
MIN....ANALYZED N-CENTRAL/NERN PA...MAY AID IN VERTICAL SHEAR OVER
THAT REGION THROUGH ASSOCIATED MESO-BETA SCALE FLOW BACKING.  UPPER
60S TO 70S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.

..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

40338192 40758191 40988119 41368024 41567961 41907918
42187692 41037692 

ACUS11 KWNS 292052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292051 
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-WVZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OH...NWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 909...

VALID 292051Z - 292215Z

LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NW PA...WHILE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MOVE EWD ACROSS OH PORTION WW...BEFORE
SCHEDULED 23Z WW EXPIRATION.  MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING
WIND...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL PSBL.

VWP DATA AND MODIFIED RUC2 SOUNDINGS INDICATE SRN PERIPHERY OF BELT
OF 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THIS REGION.  THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT DAMAGING CONVECTIVE
GUSTS...IN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND PROFILE...PARTICULARLY
FOR BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS THAT BECOME ORIENTED SIGNIFICANTLY
PERPENDICULAR TO MEAN FLOW.  AT SFC...SECONDARY ISALLOBARIC
MIN....ANALYZED N-CENTRAL/NERN PA...MAY AID IN VERTICAL SHEAR OVER
THAT REGION THROUGH ASSOCIATED MESO-BETA SCALE FLOW BACKING.  UPPER
60S TO 70S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.

..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

40338192 40758191 40988119 41368024 41567961 41907918
42187692 41037692

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 29, 4:31 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWilliams119 min
Aug 29, 1:32 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshland, Ashtabula, Carroll, Champaign, Clark, Columbiana and 33 more2 hr
Aug 29, 2:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCarroll, Columbiana, Geauga, Mahoning, Medina, Portage and 5 more5 hr
Aug 29, 2:59 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bedford, Berks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester and 24 more3 hr
Aug 29, 3:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBerks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lancaster, Lebanon and 3 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.