Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 23

January 15, 200316 counties in Kansas; 28 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 15, 2003, 2:54 PM CST for 16 counties in Kansas; 28 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 15, 2003, 2:54 PM CST (20:54 UTC)
Expired: Jan 16, 2003, 12:00 AM CST
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 44 counties

Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Adams County, NE, Boone County, NE, Butler County, NE, Clay County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Gage County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Howard County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Platte County, NE, Polk County, NE, Saline County, NE, Seward County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Valley County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2159 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 106 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

310 
ACUS11 KWNS 152055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152054 
NEZ000-KSZ000-160600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CST WED JAN 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN NEB AND NERN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 152054Z - 160600Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 1 INCH WILL
DEVELOP SEWD ALONG AN AXIS FROM ODX-TOP THROUGH 16/03Z. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS ARE LIKELY OVER NERN KS DURING THE
16/00Z-05Z PERIOD. ISOLATED SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 6-8 INCHES WILL
BE LIKELY BY 16/06Z OVER THE REGION.


LATEST IR/RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID
LEVEL LOW CENTER TO THE EAST OF MCK AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC BANDS OF MOD/HVY SNOWFALL STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
SD SEWD INTO NERN NEB SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH 16/00Z IN RESPONSE TO
REPOSITIONING OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
FARTHER SWD OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS. RECENT TRENDS IN VWP/PROFILER
DATA SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL WAA WAS INTENSIFYING OVER SERN
NEB/NERN KS. SFC TRENDS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS WITH 3-4 MB/2 HR
PRESSURE FALLS OVER ERN KS AT 20Z. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SRN KS AT 20Z WILL MOVE NWD INTO
SCENTRAL/SERN NEB AND NERN KS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH 16/00Z. RECENT
TRENDS IN THE MULLEN/HASTINGS RADARS SUGGEST THAT THIS
INTENSIFYING VERTICAL MOTION WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER SERN/SCENTRL NEB THROUGH 16/00Z AND OVER NERN KS
BETWEEN 16/00Z AND 16/06Z.

..CROSBIE.. 01/15/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

41839921 40449896 39459813 38639677 38719567 39259526
40409596 41799726

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.