Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2242

August 24, 20034 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 24, 2003, 3:09 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 24, 2003, 3:09 PM CDT (20:09 UTC)
Expired: Aug 24, 2003, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 57 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Martin County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Rock County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Boyd County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Knox County, NE, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 228 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2795 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -45 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

009 
ACUS11 KWNS 242010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242009 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN...NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 242009Z - 242245Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY
AND SWRN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED RELATIVELY WEAK BUT LOCALLY
ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE FROM SCNTRL MN WSWWD ACROSS SERN SD...TO A
THERMAL LOW OVER NERN NEB. ELEVATED CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN SD...TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...HAVE ENHANCED THE
THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THIS AREA SOUTH INTO NERN NEB/NWRN IA AND SWRN
MN WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOW TOPPED 100F. A FAIRLY STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION HAS SO FAR INHIBITED MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING AND DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST LOCALLY OVERCOME THE CAP AND ALLOW ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS EXCEPT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE DEEPER WEAK NLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE TOPPED BY 25-35KT MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...AIDED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

..CARBIN.. 08/24/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

43279927 44759691 44679375 43709290 43159362 42359632
42589875

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.