Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2213

August 21, 2003Yavapai County, Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 21, 2003, 1:18 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 21, 2003, 1:18 PM MST (20:18 UTC)
Expired
Aug 21, 2003, 3:15 PM MST
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

County Yavapai County, AZ

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2003-08-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 109 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2003-08-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 5 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
109 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-106 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1474 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
11 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

018 
ACUS11 KWNS 212018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212018 
AZZ000-212215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AZ

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 212018Z - 212215Z

LOCALIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH BACKBUILDING CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WRN/SRN SLOPES OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION OF NRN AZ....COCONINO/YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. 

REGIONAL VWP DATA SUGGESTS A DEEP LOW-MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SRN AZ NWD INTO SCENTRAL UT. THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE
ALONG WITH INFLUENCES OF UPSLOPE SSELY FLOW IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER
AGL WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT SLOW BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TOWARDS LOWER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORM MOTIONS THAT
ARE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN LAYER FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT TRAINING OF
CONVECTION. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE FROM 0.90-1.00 INCH
AT FLAGSTAFF AND 1.80 INCHES AT SCOTTSDALE PER GROUND BASED
INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASUREMENTS WILL FURTHER FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES.

..CROSBIE.. 08/21/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...

34041169 34291243 35051294 35771283 35531153 34361059

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.