Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 22
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 12, 2003, 7:22 PM EST for 26 counties in Michigan; Door County, Florence County, Kewaunee County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 12, 2003, 7:22 PM EST (00:22 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 13, 2003, 1:15 AM EST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 29 counties
Alger County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Baraga County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gogebic County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Iron County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Keweenaw County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Luce County, MI, Mackinac County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Mason County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Ontonagon County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Door County, WI, Florence County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI
The radar
The Marquette radar (KMQT), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1597 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 76 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 605 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 660 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
062 ACUS11 KWNS 130022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130022 MIZ000-130615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CST SUN JAN 12 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...U.P. OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 130022Z - 130615Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT DOWNWIND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED 1 IN/HR OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. ARCTIC FROPA EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI AND INTO NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS WITH DRAMATIC COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTREME LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING FROM LAKE SURFACE THROUGH 850MB. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL COMBINE WITH RESULTANT INSTABILITY AND RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS...FIRST OFF CNTRL AND SRN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN LATER OFF NRN PART OF LAKE MI. ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BANDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER GRADUALLY LESSENS THROUGH 06Z. ..CARBIN/NADEN.. 01/13/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 46369031 46609046 46849011 47128925 47428833 47388765 46878761 46708658 46798611 46808564 46728503 46308465 45648439 44898443 44168558 43878625 44418746 45298774 46068895 46128943
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.