Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2197

August 20, 2003Gogebic County, Iron County, Michigan; 7 counties in Minnesota; 36 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 20, 2003, 2:11 PM CDT for Gogebic County, Iron County, Michigan; 7 counties in Minnesota; 36 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 20, 2003, 2:11 PM CDT (19:11 UTC)
Expired: Aug 20, 2003, 4:15 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 45 counties

Gogebic County, MI, Iron County, MI, Chisago County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Houston County, MN, Pine County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Washington County, MN, Winona County, MN, Adams County, WI, Ashland County, WI, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Iron County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Portage County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Washburn County, WI, Wood County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 209 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -56 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 750 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 0 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

855 
ACUS11 KWNS 201911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201911 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-202115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN/WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201911Z - 202115Z

...TSTMS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS E
CNTRL MN AND WRN WI...LIKELY REQUIRING A WW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IS ALREADY SHOWS CUMULUS FORMING FROM EAU/VOK.
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN WHICH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 1-2 MB/HR ACROSS
CNTRL WI. STRONG CONFLUENCE HAS BEEN ONGOING IN THIS GENERAL REGION
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A MAXIMA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY NOTED ALONG MN/WI BORDER. VWP
DATA/PROFILERS/18Z MPX SOUNDING SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE
ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS...SO SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.  

THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN RICH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S...WITH DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM NORTH OF
GREEN BAY TO NEAR LA CROSSE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE VICINITY OF
SOME MESOSCALE BOUNDARY SUCH AS THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.

..TAYLOR.. 08/20/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

43589146 44289287 45839323 46799211 46618790 43488999

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 20, 3:45 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Gogebic, Iron, Ontonagon	5 hr
Aug 20, 2:15 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Mower	90 min
Aug 20, 2:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha and 1 more	5 hr
Aug 20, 6:09 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha and 1 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.