Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2196

August 20, 200316 counties in North Dakota; Campbell County, McPherson County, South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 20, 2003, 1:42 PM CDT for 16 counties in North Dakota; Campbell County, McPherson County, South Dakota. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 20, 2003, 1:42 PM CDT (18:42 UTC)
Expired
Aug 20, 2003, 3:15 PM CDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Benson County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Kidder County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Towner County, ND, Wells County, ND, Campbell County, SD, McPherson County, SD

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2003-08-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2003-08-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 70 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2294 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
70 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
99 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

340 
ACUS11 KWNS 201843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201842 
NDZ000-SDZ000-202015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND/NCNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201842Z - 202015Z

A LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS NCNTRL ND. THE
LINE MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL.
WW MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM
NE OF BISMARK TO E OF MINOT. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
AXIS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS VERY NARROW WHICH COULD CAUSE THE
STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE E. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF
ABOUT 45 KT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A VORT MAX APPROACHING
FROM THE W EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS ESPECIALLY IF THE CONVECTION CAN GET ROOTED
IN THE HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ERN ND. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.
HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 08/20/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45620075 47240082 48700076 48899956 48719869 47189865
45599878 45389958

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 20, 5:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarnes, Cass, Dickey, Foster, Griggs, LaMoure and 5 more116 min
Aug 19, 7:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAurora, Bon Homme, Brule, Charles Mix, Davison, Douglas and 6 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.