Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 2196
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 20, 2003, 1:42 PM CDT for 16 counties in North Dakota; Campbell County, McPherson County, South Dakota. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 20, 2003, 1:42 PM CDT (18:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 20, 2003, 3:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Benson County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Kidder County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Towner County, ND, Wells County, ND, Campbell County, SD, McPherson County, SD
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2294 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 70 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 99 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
340 ACUS11 KWNS 201843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201842 NDZ000-SDZ000-202015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND/NCNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201842Z - 202015Z A LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS NCNTRL ND. THE LINE MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL. WW MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM NE OF BISMARK TO E OF MINOT. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS VERY NARROW WHICH COULD CAUSE THE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE E. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF ABOUT 45 KT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A VORT MAX APPROACHING FROM THE W EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS ESPECIALLY IF THE CONVECTION CAN GET ROOTED IN THE HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ERN ND. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 08/20/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45620075 47240082 48700076 48899956 48719869 47189865 45599878 45389958
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 5:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, Cass, Dickey, Foster, Griggs, LaMoure and 5 more | 116 min |
| Aug 19, 7:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aurora, Bon Homme, Brule, Charles Mix, Davison, Douglas and 6 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.