Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2159

August 15, 200313 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 15, 2003, 8:31 PM CDT for 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 15, 2003, 8:31 PM CDT (01:31 UTC)
Expired
Aug 15, 2003, 10:30 PM CDT
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Aransas County, TX, Brooks County, TX, Cameron County, TX, Duval County, TX, Hidalgo County, TX, Jim Hogg County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Kenedy County, TX, Kleberg County, TX, Nueces County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Starr County, TX, Willacy County, TX

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-08-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 559 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-08-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 8 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
559 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1693 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
67 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

751 
ACUS11 KWNS 160131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160131 
TXZ000-160330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO POTENTIAL 

VALID 160131Z - 160330Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ERIKA APPROACHES THE S TX COAST.  WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

ERIKA CONTINUES MOVING WWD AT AROUND 20 MPH...AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN WITH TIME -- SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM TPC FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

LATEST BRO /BROWNSVILLE TX/ WSR-88D VWP SHOWS STRONG /30 TO 45 KT/
NNELY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...WHICH WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS ERIKA
APPROACHES.  LOCAL DECISION TREE SUGGESTS THAT TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL OF ERIKAS TRAITS -- INCLUDING RAPID STORM
MOTION AND CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION -- ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO
OCCURRENCE WITHIN TROPICAL SYSTEMS.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FROM ROUGHLY
CRP SWD...WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND STRONGER WIND FIELD SHOULD
PERSIST.

..GOSS.. 08/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

27289913 28139871 28349820 28259687 27389729 25889724
26229862

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 15, 9:40 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBrooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Kenedy and 4 more9 hr
Aug 16, 3:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Kenedy and 4 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.