Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 2157
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 14, 2003, 8:19 PM MST for Maricopa County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 56 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 14, 2003, 8:19 PM MST (03:19 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 14, 2003, 9:15 PM MST
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Maricopa County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 51 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 485 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -55 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2530 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -18 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -7 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 150320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150319 AZZ000-150415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AZ... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 859... VALID 150319Z - 150415Z ALTHOUGH LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AZ...WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 15/04Z. LATEST RADAR / SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW MOVING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AZ. HOWEVER...AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO STABILIZE AS LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ATTM. STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN ONGOING CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STABILIZE. ALTHOUGH A LIMITED / LOCAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST BEYOND 15/04Z...EXPECT GREATEST THREAT TO HAVE PASSED BY THAT TIME. THUS...WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..GOSS.. 08/15/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 35161157 33991195 33071179 32001259 32161338 33271373 35251228 ACUS11 KWNS 150320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150319 AZZ000-150415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AZ... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 859... VALID 150319Z - 150415Z ALTHOUGH LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AZ...WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 15/04Z. LATEST RADAR / SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW MOVING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AZ. HOWEVER...AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO STABILIZE AS LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ATTM. STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN ONGOING CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STABILIZE. ALTHOUGH A LIMITED / LOCAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST BEYOND 15/04Z...EXPECT GREATEST THREAT TO HAVE PASSED BY THAT TIME. THUS...WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..GOSS.. 08/15/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 35161157 33991195 33071179 32001259 32161338 33271373 35251228
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 7:02 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coconino, Gila, Maricopa, Navajo, Pima, Pinal and 1 more | 88 min |
| Aug 15, 12:20 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coconino | 115 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.