Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2155

August 14, 20039 counties in Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 14, 2003, 4:06 PM MST for 9 counties in Arizona. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 14, 2003, 4:06 PM MST (23:06 UTC)
Expired: Aug 14, 2003, 5:30 PM MST
In force: 84 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Apache County, AZ, Cochise County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, Graham County, AZ, Maricopa County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ, Pima County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1535 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 142 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

127 
ACUS11 KWNS 142307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142306 
NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-150030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND S CENTRAL AZ...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 859...

VALID 142306Z - 150030Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA OVER S CENTRAL AND ERN AZ.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF WWD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT WHERE UPPER 50S / LOW 60S DEWPOINTS
BENEATH COOLING /-6 TO -8C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.

ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /20 TO 25
KT AT MID-LEVELS/...NELY MEAN WIND SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SWWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AND 30 TO 40 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OBSERVED ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
ORGANIZED / INTENSE UPDRAFTS.  GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST
ACROSS SERN / S CENTRAL AZ WHERE ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAY DEVELOP
WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS NOW OVER E CENTRAL / SERN AZ.

..GOSS.. 08/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...

37300984 37340850 34730896 31640967 31461158 32081337
34991255 36491101

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 14, 12:44 PM MST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Gila, Graham, Greenlee, Maricopa, Pinal	2 hr
Aug 14, 1:45 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Gila, Maricopa, Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.