Alert archive / Vermont / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2104

August 6, 20036 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 6, 2003, 12:44 PM EDT for 6 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 6, 2003, 12:44 PM EDT (16:44 UTC)
Expired: Aug 6, 2003, 2:45 PM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 37 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Oxford County, ME, York County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Columbia County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Washington County, NY, Providence County, RI, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Essex County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 158 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 287 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 512 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

681 
ACUS11 KWNS 061645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061644 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-061845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT WED AUG 06 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NY/VT/NH/CT/RI/MA INTO WRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061644Z - 061845Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AT 1630Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
ERN NY INTO WRN NJ. HERE...IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INVOF OF THIS WIND SHIFT AND SEVERAL CLOUD STREETS TO THE E ARE
CO-LOCATED WITH A ZONE OF STRONG FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. 

DIABATIC HEATING...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND DYNAMIC MID-LEVEL
COOLING WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST JUST OFF SHORE INTO ERN 
ME...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..MEAD.. 08/06/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

41987367 43057358 44777324 45067236 44957086 44157039
43287064 41997115 41657207

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.