Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 2003
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 27, 2003, 2:47 PM MST for 11 counties in Arizona. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 27, 2003, 2:47 PM MST (21:47 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 27, 2003, 4:45 PM MST
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Apache County, AZ, Cochise County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, Graham County, AZ, Greenlee County, AZ, Maricopa County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ, Pima County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 147 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -279 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2334 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 2 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
544 ACUS11 KWNS 272148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272147 AZZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272147Z - 272345Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN AZ MAY BEGIN TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NERN AZ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND MAY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NE PLATEAU REGION. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER THE WRN MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS OF ECENTRAL AZ. OTHER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER FAR SERN AZ AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL VORT MAX ROTATING WWD AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED 125 MI SOUTH OF DUG. COPIOUS CLOUD COVER OVER SRN AZ EARLIER TODAY HAS AIDED IN LESS INSTABILITY TODAY THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS...60 KTS AT 9 KM...PER RECENT WHITE SANDS NM PROFILER MAY AID IN INCREASING THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE. IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE INTO A WELL DEFINED LINE A WW WOULD BE THEN NEEDED. ..CROSBIE.. 07/27/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 31321115 32151370 34541332 35751070 36090946 31340908
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 5:42 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cochise, Gila, Graham, Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz | 78 min |
| Jul 26, 7:36 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gila, Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz | 84 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.