Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2003

July 27, 200311 counties in Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 27, 2003, 2:47 PM MST for 11 counties in Arizona. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 27, 2003, 2:47 PM MST (21:47 UTC)
Expired
Jul 27, 2003, 4:45 PM MST
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Apache County, AZ, Cochise County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, Graham County, AZ, Greenlee County, AZ, Maricopa County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ, Pima County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 12:00Z on 2003-07-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 147 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 12:00Z on 2003-07-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -41 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
147 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-279 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2334 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

544 
ACUS11 KWNS 272148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272147 
AZZ000-272345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272147Z - 272345Z

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN AZ MAY BEGIN TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NERN AZ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE AND MAY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NE PLATEAU REGION.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER THE WRN
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS OF ECENTRAL AZ. OTHER CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING OVER FAR SERN AZ AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL VORT MAX
ROTATING WWD AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED 125 MI SOUTH OF DUG. COPIOUS
CLOUD COVER OVER SRN AZ EARLIER TODAY HAS AIDED IN LESS INSTABILITY
TODAY THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. STRONGER
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS...60 KTS AT 9 KM...PER RECENT WHITE SANDS NM
PROFILER MAY AID IN INCREASING THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND SUPPORTING
AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE. IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS INDICATE
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE INTO A WELL DEFINED LINE A WW WOULD
BE THEN NEEDED.

..CROSBIE.. 07/27/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

31321115 32151370 34541332 35751070 36090946 31340908

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 26, 5:42 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCochise, Gila, Graham, Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz78 min
Jul 26, 7:36 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGila, Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.