Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 20

January 11, 2003Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 11, 2003, 7:09 PM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 11, 2003, 7:09 PM EST (00:09 UTC)
Expired
Jan 12, 2003, 12:45 AM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Heavy snow

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2003-01-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2003-01-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 152 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1119 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
152 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
159 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

987 
ACUS11 KWNS 120010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120009 
NYZ000-120545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF ONTARIO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 120009Z - 120545Z

EXPECT THE CONTINUATION OF SINGLE BAND EVENT INTO AREAS TO THE
LEE OF ONTARIO THRU 12/06Z...WITH AT LEAST 2-3 IN/HR SNOWFALL
RATES POSSIBLE.


PRESENT FT DRUM NY RADAR REVEALS SINGLE BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO PUMMEL SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY EWD INTO
CNTRL LEWIS COUNTY IN WRN NEW YORK STATE. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITIES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN JEFFERSON AS WELL AS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING UVM AHEAD OF ENCROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATING ESEWD FROM ONTARIO. DESPITE THE IMPINGEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION...18Z ETA40
MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY TO LEAD TO THE DETERIORATION OF THE PRESENT BAND.
EXPECT THE BAND TO REMAIN FOCUSED IN SRN JEFFERSON/EXTREME NRN
OSWEGO COUNTIES THRU AROUND 12/05-6Z BEFORE DROPPING GRADUALLY
SWD AS WINDS BACK TO AROUND 300-310 DEGREES. VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN AREAS AFFECTED BY THE
SINGLE BAND...WITH RATES UP TO 6 IN/HR POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

..NADEN.. 01/12/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

44037608 43987628 43657644 43457614 43397574 43377541
43597484 43887458 44167506 44077589

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.