Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 2
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 31, 2002, 8:59 PM MST for 11 counties in Colorado; Cheyenne County, Sherman County, Kansas; 5 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 31, 2002, 8:59 PM MST (03:59 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 1, 2003, 3:00 AM MST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Cheyenne County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Chase County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Keith County, NE, Perkins County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 00:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 48 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2225 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 67 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -12 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 127 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
985 ACUS11 KWNS 010400 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010359 COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-011000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2002 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 010359Z - 011000Z MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH 01/08Z ACROSS FAR NERN CO AND SWRN NEB. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD INTO NWRN KS BY 01/10Z. HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 01/12Z. LATEST WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER ERN CO/SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS...DUE TO INCREASING UVM AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL VWP DATA SUGGESTS A NE-SW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR OGA IN SWRN NE TO NEAR LIC. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DEN/LBF INDICATED A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THUS SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG ASCENT AND MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE WILL BE NEEDED FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO REACH THE GROUND. ONCE NEAR SATURATION OCCURS...CONTINUED STRONG UVM DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS FIELD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF LOW CENTER WILL AID IN INTENSIFYING SFC CONVERGENCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL FROM NEAR LIC NEWD INTO FAR SWRN NEB. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD...EXPECT THIS BAND TO PIVOT TOWARDS NWRN KS AROUND 01/12Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/01/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 38620424 40150416 41510210 41340113 40650105 39280152 38200295
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 5:37 AM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Yuma | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.