Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 166

February 27, 200319 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 27, 2003, 8:00 AM EST for 19 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 27, 2003, 8:00 AM EST (13:00 UTC)
Expired
Feb 27, 2003, 10:00 AM EST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Clay County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Duval County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Levy County, FL, Madison County, FL, Marion County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2003-02-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 68 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2003-02-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 393 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
68 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-33 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
490 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
393 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
668 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

375 
ACUS11 KWNS 271300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271300 
FLZ000-271500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST THU FEB 27 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...

VALID 271300Z - 271500Z

THREAT OF AN ISOLD TORNADO...OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
TWO WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL THROUGH 15Z.



LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING FRONTAL WAVE CENTERED OVER
APALACHEE BAY WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS TAYLOR...
DIXIE...LEVY...AND MARION COUNTIES. STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO INITIATE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY EWD
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY AOB
500 J/KG MUCAPE/0 TO -1 MULI...STRONG FORCING AND VERY STRONG LOW
THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...LOW LCL
MAY ALLOW FOR MESOCYCLONE ROTATION...OR ISOLD STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...TO REACH THE SURFACE AS MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS NEAR
THE SURFACE WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 15Z.

..CARBIN.. 02/27/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

29178363 29168528 29908432 30638336 30648168 30638000
29908098 29168197

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 27, 3:31 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay119 min
Feb 27, 5:24 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie and 7 more2 hr
Feb 27, 5:55 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie and 13 more5 hr
Feb 27, 10:26 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie and 13 more34 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.