Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 161
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 26, 2003, 2:11 PM CST for 25 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 26, 2003, 2:11 PM CST (20:11 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 26, 2003, 6:15 PM CST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 25 counties
Arkansas County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 4 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 394 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 68 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 228 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 401 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
342 ACUS11 KWNS 262011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262011 ARZ000-270015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CST WED FEB 26 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN AR CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 262011Z - 270015Z ...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS... LONG TERM LOOP OF VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SUBTLE VORT MAX HAS SHEARED EWD WITHIN SRN BRANCH OF JET STREAM ACROSS N TX...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE /SHV RAOB AROUND 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/. GIVEN LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX...RAIN IS LIKELY TO EXPAND AGAIN THIS EVENING DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/SRN AR. PER RADAR/LIGHTNING DETECTION...TSTMS HAVE INDEED FORMED OVER NERN TX AND ARE MOVING TOWARD TEXARKANA ATTM. 18 UTC ETA SEEMS TO HAVE RESOLVED THIS IMPULSE BETTER THAN THE 12 UTC SOLUTION AND PRODUCES MORE QPF...WHICH SEEMS TO AGREE WITH ONGOING SITUATION. MESOANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE FREEZING LINE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LA BORDER...WITH ALL OF CNTRL/SRN AR AOB FREEZING. GIVEN WEAK NELY FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER WCNTRL LA THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY BENEATH STRONG 850 MB WARM NOSE AOA 5C. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE FREEZING RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF CNTRL/SRN AR INTO THIS EVENING. PRIND THAT AVERAGE RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 21-03 UTC COULD EXCEED A QUARTER OF A INCH. ..RACY.. 02/26/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 34859063 34009131 33699183 33279286 34289382 35039311 35489113 35389012
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 11:35 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden and 24 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 26, 4:22 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Crittenden and 19 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.