Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 161

February 26, 200325 counties in Arkansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 26, 2003, 2:11 PM CST for 25 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 26, 2003, 2:11 PM CST (20:11 UTC)
Expired
Feb 26, 2003, 6:15 PM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 25 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2003-02-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 4 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2003-02-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 228 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
4 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
394 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
228 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
401 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

342 
ACUS11 KWNS 262011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262011 
ARZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CST WED FEB 26 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN AR

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 262011Z - 270015Z

...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...



LONG TERM LOOP OF VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SUBTLE VORT MAX HAS
SHEARED EWD WITHIN SRN BRANCH OF JET STREAM ACROSS N TX...AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.  MORNING RAOB DATA
SHOWED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE /SHV RAOB AROUND
1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/.  GIVEN LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX...RAIN IS LIKELY TO EXPAND AGAIN
THIS EVENING DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/SRN AR.  PER RADAR/LIGHTNING
DETECTION...TSTMS HAVE INDEED FORMED OVER NERN TX AND ARE MOVING
TOWARD TEXARKANA ATTM.	18 UTC ETA SEEMS TO HAVE RESOLVED THIS
IMPULSE BETTER THAN THE 12 UTC SOLUTION AND PRODUCES MORE
QPF...WHICH SEEMS TO AGREE WITH ONGOING SITUATION.



MESOANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE FREEZING LINE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LA
BORDER...WITH ALL OF CNTRL/SRN AR AOB FREEZING.  GIVEN WEAK NELY
FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER WCNTRL LA THIS
EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY BENEATH
STRONG 850 MB WARM NOSE AOA 5C.  THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
MORE FREEZING RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF CNTRL/SRN AR INTO THIS
EVENING.  PRIND THAT AVERAGE RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 21-03 UTC COULD
EXCEED A QUARTER OF A INCH.



..RACY.. 02/26/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

34859063 34009131 33699183 33279286 34289382 35039311
35489113 35389012

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 25, 11:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden and 24 more6 hr
Feb 26, 4:22 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Crittenden and 19 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.